Group B scenarios: Can Afghanistan qualify for the next round and are South Africa the frontrunners to top the group?

Afghanistan's surprising victory over England has turned Group B into a tight race for semi-finals qualification, with three teams vying for two spots. Australia, currently with three points and a Net Run Rate of 0.475, will clash with Afghanistan, who have two points and a NRR of -0.99, in Lahore on Friday. Meanwhile, South Africa, also with three points but a superior NRR of 2.14, will take on England on Saturday. The outcome of these two matches will determine which two teams advance to the semi-finals.

If Australia and South Africa win

Australia and South Africa will qualify with five points each. The top spot in the group will be decided by the win margins, with South Africa favourites to finish first, given their comprehensive win against Afghanistan. Assuming a one-run win for South Africa after scoring 300, Australia need to win by 87 runs (with the same first-innings total) to go past South Africa's NRR.

If Australia and England win

Australia will top the group with five points, while South Africa will still finish second on three.

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If Afghanistan and South Africa win

South Africa will top with five points, while Afghanistan, with four points, will finish second ahead of Australia.

If Afghanistan and England win

Afghanistan will finish on top with four points. The second place will then go to either Australia or South Africa, who will both finish on three points. South Africa are well ahead on net run rate currently, which means they'll have to suffer a big loss to England for Australia to move ahead on NRR. For instance, if Australia lose by just one run after Afghanistan score 300, South Africa will have lose by 87 chasing the same target, for their NRR to slip below Australia's.

If Australia-Afghanistan is washed out

There's a possibility of showers in Lahore on Friday. If points are shared in that game, Australia will go up to four points and will be assured of qualification.

If South Africa beat England they will top the group with five points, but if England win, then South Africa and Afghanistan will finish on three points, which will bring NRR into the equation. Afghanistan (NRR -0.99) will almost certainly be eliminated, as they'll need South Africa to lose by at least 207 runs (chasing 301) to move up to second place and qualify.